Non-drought conditions declared Tuesday Nov. 19, 2013

Drought Status: No Drought (declared Tuesday November 19, 2013)

Barton Springs: ~89 cfs (10-day average)

Lovelady: 480.2 ft-msl (appears to be leveling off)

From the press release:

The Barton Springs/Edwards Aquifer Conservation District’s General Manager has declared a No-Drought condition for the aquifers within the District, effective immediately. The declaration comes after a wet September that saturated soils, then record-setting rainfall in October that caused runoff to area creeks which swelled beyond their banks allowing substantial recharge to the aquifer. One of the area’s two groundwater drought indicators, the water level in the Lovelady Monitor Well, has been rising steadily since the storms in mid- and late-October. On Sunday, November 17, the water level in the Lovelady Well crossed above the District’s drought threshold, a rise of over 19 feet in about a month. The other drought indicator, sustained flow rate at Barton Springs, moved above its threshold after the precipitation events in mid-October and has remained there.  Both indicators need to be above their designated thresholds – and currently are – to emerge from drought.

The District declared a groundwater drought and has been enforcing mandatory water-use restrictions since November 15, 2012, just over a year ago. While the aquifer has received substantial recharge and has passed into No-Drought status, it is still below average water storage capacity.  “The water level at the Lovelady well is still 22 feet below average, but the rapid recharge caused by the recent storms has greatly improved groundwater conditions around the District,” said Robin Gary, Public Information Coordinator.  Groundwater users are encouraged to maintain conservation practices, but mandatory water use restrictions are lifted. 

Brian Smith, Aquifer Science Team Leader, stated that, “These exceptional rain events in October fell over parts of the Edwards Aquifer recharge and contributing zone, but the western parts of the contributing zone received only moderate amounts of rain, so we are not likely to see flow continuing in the creeks for an extended period of time.  Without significant rain this fall and winter the aquifer could return to drought status by late winter or spring.”

The District’s General Manager, John Dupnik, offered this reminder stating that, “Despite the exceedingly wet conditions this fall, it is important that groundwater users not forget about the preceding summer months during which severe to extreme meteorological drought gripped the area, and as a consequence, caused water levels in the aquifer to plummet to close to Stage IV Exceptional Drought conditions.” Even in No-Drought status, end users are encouraged to continue to conserve.  Conserving water can prolong the time spent out of groundwater drought and protect water levels and springflow at Barton Springs.

Aquifer on verge of non-drought conditions

Drought Status: Alarm Stage II
Lovelady: 476.23 ft (and rising)
Barton Springs: 86 cfs (89 cfs 10-day average)*
*based on manual measurements and estimates

The Drought Status is on the agenda at tonight's Board meeting. Barton Springs is already above its drought indicator thresholds, and it is only a matter of days before the Lovelady well is similarly above its thresholds. Board members could elect to declare non-drought conditions in the near future.

November Aquifer Update

Drought Status: Alarm Stage II (but likely will exit drought in the next week); the drought status can only be changed by the direction of the Board of Directors.

Lovelady: 475.76 ft-msl (and rising about 0.5 ft/d)
Barton Springs: Data still unavailable from the USGS, but manual measurements we've made recently put it near 60 cfs.

Synopsis: The wet September and the two rain bombs we received in October (wettest October ever at Camp Mabry!) has brought the Aquifer out of Stage III and into Stage II (Board changed on 10/24/13). The substantial recharge from these rains provided enough moisture to provide sustained creek and river flows in the area--thus providing sustained recharge. For example, Onion Creek is flowing nearly 80 cfs today, nearly all of that becomes recharge. Thus, we expect both our drought indicators (Lovelady and Barton Springs) to be above their respective drought thresholds by early next week). The Board meets this Thursday (11/14/13) and could take action given the rising trends.

A good summary of the impact of recent rains can be found in our latest newsletter: HERE

Another Rain Bomb

Stage II Alarm Drought

As of the time of this posting 2 to 9+ inches of rain have fallen on the recharge and contributing zones of the Barton Springs Edwards Aquifer. This morning many of the area's creeks and rivers are flowing at flood stages similar (or greater) in magnitude to those brought about by the storm event on October 13th.

 Blanco River at Wimberley experienced a rise exceeding 20 ft and about 66,000 cfs (much more than the Oct 13). Onion Creek at Driftwood saw over 12 ft of rise and reached about 12,700 cfs (also much bigger than the Oct 13). Slaughter Creek rose to about 11 ft and flowed at 3,500 cfs (about the same as Oct 13 so far) Barton Creek at 360 had a 12+ ft rise, 8,500 cfs (less than Oct 13)

Some of the creeks may continue to rise throughout the day. 

This rain may have produced enough recharge to remove drought conditions in the coming weeks. 

Aquifer Conditions Improving

Stage III Critical Drought
Lovelady monitor well: 465.32 ft-msl
Barton Springs: approx. 65 cfs 10-day average

Water levels in the aquifer continue to climb after the storm on October 12-13 that brought 6.8 inches to the District rain gauge and over 12 inches in areas nearby. Lovelady monitor well water level has come up over 6 feet since the beginning of October. It is unclear whether the storms were enough to get us completely out of drought or for how long we water level will continue to rise, but levels have improved beyond the threshold between Stage II Alarm and Stage III Critical drought.
Flow at Barton Springs has also dramatically increased; District staff measured flow this morning to be about 68 cfs.
This evening the District's board of directors will convene and may vote to downgrade the drought severity to Stage II Drought.

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Floods put us on the Right Track but not out of Drought yet

Stage III Critical Drought

Heavy rains (and floods) over the October 12 through 13 weekend have brought about much needed flow in the creeks that cross the recharge zone of the Barton Springs segment of the Edwards Aquifer.  Water levels in the aquifer started to rise slowly in mid-September following two rain events that brought a total of 4.4 inches to the District rain gage.  September ended with a total of 6.8 inches of rain at the District.  The October 12-13 rain event brought over 12 inches of rain to an area near Loop 360 and Barton Creek, 8 inches in Shady Hollow, with lesser amounts over the remainder of the recharge and contributing zones.  Aquifer levels in the Lovelady monitor well rose about a foot between September 18 and October 12.  Following the October 12-13 rain event, the water level in the well rose about 1.2 ft over a 4-day period.  A further rise of about 2.3 ft will move us into Stage II Alarm Drought from our current Stage III Critical Drought.  We can’t say that the end of the drought is in sight, but we are at least on the right track, for now.

Below see a video of Slaughter Creek on the morning of Sunday October 13.

Error in Reported USGS Discharge at Barton Springs

The reported Barton Springs flow values (here) from the USGS website are not presently accurate due to the Government Shutdown. Small adjustments to the pool level due to pool management affect the nearby USGS gage used to estimate springflow. The USGS makes adjustments to the gage-springflow relationship to compensate for changes in the pool level. However, with staff on furlough, those adjustments are not occurring and so the gage is erroneously reporting some of the lowest values ever recorded (9.9 today, the lowest during 1956 was 9.6 cfs). We know that is not true. Manual measurement this week was about 24 cfs.

October Aquifer Update

Drought Status: Stage III Critical
Barton Springs: 19 cfs (10-day average)*
Lovelady: 458.9

Recent rains have helped to bring springflow and water levels upward a little bit (see chart below). However, without sustained recharge from flowing creeks, we will soon be back into a declining trend. Onion Creek near Driftwood, for example is only flowing about 2 cfs--not enough to provide recharge to the aquifer.

The U.S. Seasonal Outlook through December is for the drought to persist. Tropical or Hurricane systems will likely be the best potential for rainfall, although those bring their own problems.

source: http://waterdata.usgs.gov/tx/nwis/uv/?site_no=301237097464801&PARAmeter_cd=72019

Rains Slow Descent into Deeper Drought

Stage III Critical Drought

Barton Springs: 21 cfs (10-day average)

Lovelady Monitor Well: 458.4 ft-msl

September was a rainy month. As of September 26, the total rainfall for the month has been 4.35 inches, compared to the 3.5 inches historical average. The rains were much needed after the exceptionally dry conditions experienced in August. Barton Springs experienced a spike in discharge that brought flow from approximately 17 cfs at the beginning of September to just over 30 cfs at peak discharge earlier this week. Lovelady also showed a reversal in the decreasing hydrograph that has been the norm since the declaration of drought in November 2012. With the rain soaking soils and replenishing parched plants, conditions are primed for any precipitation in the coming weeks to generate runoff and streamflow, where most of the recharge to the aquifer occurs. Hopefully rainy conditions will persist throughout the fall and winter and substantial recharge can occur long-term. However, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center predicts that drought conditions will persist or intensify in central Texas for the foreseeable future. 

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Precipitation in September not Enough to Change Drought Trends

Stage III Critical Drought

Barton Springs:  15.4 cfs 10-day average based on correlation with Lovelady

Lovelady monitor well: 458.3 ft-msl

Rainfall in September has been good. As of September 12th, 2.45 inches of rain have been measured at the District rain gauge; the historic monthly average is 3.5 inches. Despite the amount of precipitation over the last couple of weeks, recharge to the aquifer has been minimal, with most of the rain water going to replenishing parched soils and vegetation. As a result, water levels in the aquifer continue to decline, creeping closer to Stage IV Exceptional drought. Unless recharge conditions substantially improve we project approaching the Stage IV threshold around the end of the year. 

Last month the USGS began posting real time data from our Lovelady monitor well. That data can be viewed at the following link:

http://waterdata.usgs.gov/tx/nwis/uv/?site_no=301237097464801&PARAmeter_cd=72019

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