Drought Status: Non-drought Barton Springs Flow: 96 cfs 10-day average Lovelady (depth to water): 136.2 ft
Recent rainfall totals of up to 6 inches in the past two weeks have recharged the aquifer and increased water levels and springflow, for the time being. However, the water level rise was only temporary as water levels in wells are beginning to decline once again, part of the normal summer cycle.
Pictured below is a sinkhole in the recharge zone. The gentleman is pointing to the high-water mark on the tree. The sinkhole filled to this high-level and then drained fairly rapidly, within a day.
Lovelady is currently at 136.5 ft as of today and has reached its "plateau." The rains a couple week ago have probably helped it maintain this level, which is the same depth as the last blog entry on 6/9. Nearly all other Edwards monitor wells are showing a declining trend for the past few weeks. I would expect the Lovelady well to start declining (relatively) rapidly over the next month.Conversely, the Trinity levels in our area are still rising, but at a slower pace. Water levels in those wells will soon plateau and start their decent.
Barton Springs is currently at 85 cfs, down from 90 at the blog entry. It will start a rapid decline in the coming months without more rains.
The Climate Prediction Center is indicating that: "Conditions are favorable for a transition to La Niña conditions during June – August 2010."
Unfortunately, La Niña conditions generally mean hotter and drier weather than normal for central Texas. While water levels are sufficient to sustain us through the summer, a dry Fall could put us into drought conditions by summer 2011. Let's hope it is a short-lived La Niña.
Aquifer Status: Non-drought Barton Springs flow: ~89 cfs (88 10-day average) Lovelady Well: 136.5 ft depth to water
April and May rainfall were a bit below average and so both Barton Springs and the Lovelady well reached a peak and are now starting to level off their rise and even start to decline. This is their normal hydrologic response as we enter into hotter and drier conditions. Storage in the aquifer is high enough that we will likely avoid drought declarations this summer.
Barton Springs had reached it's peak and is starting to decline in flow. Current flow is about 88 cfs (90 cfs 10-day average). The Lovelady well is still rising but the ascent is slowing and is currently at 136.8 ft depth to water.
While that is no surprise to anyone (and even I could predict that), meteorologists are predicting a shift away from the wetter (El Nino) conditions to a slightly drier-than-normal summer.
"The rains are expected to subside as the El Niño effect so dominant in the Pacific Ocean gives way to a La Niña effect, which typically leads to drier weather in Texas."
Click here for a story by Asher Price of the Austin-American Statesman.
Thursday, April 22, 2010
Aquifer Update Drought Status: Non-drought Lovelady Well: 140.6 ft depth to water (well above the average of 153 ft) Barton Springs: 93 cfs (also well above the average of ~53 cfs)
Drought Status: Non-drought Lovelady Well: 144.07 ft depth to water (well above the average of 153 ft) Barton Springs: 92 cfs (also well above the average of ~53 cfs)
Non-drought Conditions Barton Springs Flow: 89 cfs (10-day average)
Lovelady depth to water: 148.1 ft
Currently, the aquifer is experiencing high springflow and water levels due to the above-average rainfall and recharge we’ve received since September 2009.
The end of the drought was brought about by some substantial rainfall in the fall of 2009 and then persistent above-average rainfall for the past 6 months (Figure 2).The above-average rainfall is related to the onset of El Niño conditions.El Niño conditions generally produce above-average rainfall for Texas, while La Niña conditions usually produce drier-than-normal conditions for Texas.The El Niño-La Niña cycles result from changes in the global moisture patterns related to ocean temperatures fluctuations in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.El Niño began to develop in the summer of 2009.Substantial storms of up to 10 inches began to fall in September 2009 and helped saturate the extremely dry ground, and prime the area for the subsequent above-average rains resulting in runoff and ultimately recharge to the aquifer.
The short-term forecast is very good.The Climate Prediction Center indicates that El Niño conditions are expected to continue through the spring 2010.However, current models indicate a possible weakening and possibly entry into neutral or La Niña conditions late in the summer 2010.
Critical Stage: Barton 20 cfs or Lovelady 190.7 feet
Exceptional Stage: Barton 14 cfs or Lovelady 196.3 feet
Emergency Response Period: 10 cfs or Lovelady 200.0 feet
Drought Rules
Either Barton Springs OR the Lovelady Well can trigger a drought declaration by the Board. However, BOTH Barton Springs AND the Lovelady Well must be above their respective drought trigger levels to exit a drought declaration.
