Despite recent rains, much of Texas is still in a severe drought and the long-term outlook is mixed, according to Dr. John Nielsen-Gammon, Regents Professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences and state climatologist. .........
Click here for the full story.
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Thursday, February 23, 2012
Drought Status Downgraded to Alarm Stage II
The Board of Directors of the Barton Springs/Edwards Aquifer Conservation District eased drought restrictions from Stage III Critical Drought to Stage II Alarm at its Board meeting this evening, effective immediately. With above average rainfall this winter, soils reached saturation and runoff created enough creek flow to contribute some recharge to the aquifer. Both of the District’s drought triggers have now crossed back over their respective Stage II Alarm Drought thresholds. The Lovelady Monitor Well depth-to-water is above 190.7 feet and continues to rise; the Barton Springs 10-day average discharge is well above its 20 cubic feet per second threshold.
While water levels in the aquifer are on the rise, without continued above average rainfall, the District could find itself back in Stage III Critical Drought this summer. “In 2010, Hurricane Alex and Tropical Storm Hermine brought record rainfall to Central Texas. This time we've seen smaller, more frequent rain events that are finally causing slow rises in our monitoring wells,” commented Brian Smith, Principal Hydrogeologist with the District.
Under Stage II restrictions, permittees are now required to restrict monthly pumping by at least 20% for historical permits and from 20 to 50% for conditional permits, depending on permit class. Water utilities supplied by groundwater in the District will restrict outdoor water use to comply with watering schedules that each of them established, and that the District approved. Though Stage II Alarm Drought restrictions generally allow for some outdoor water use, groundwater users should continue to conserve and maintain a monthly water use of less than 4,000 gallons per person (less than 16,000 gallons for a family of 4).
“Our region's hydrologic drought is not over. Water levels in the aquifers are still low,” noted Kirk Holland, the District’s General Manager, “but we finally received enough rain in the right places to start having some effective replenishment of the aquifer. However, all our groundwater users need to continue to conserve water and use it wisely. High water use and dry conditions could send us back into Stage III Critical Drought this summer.”
Saturday, February 18, 2012
February Rainfall continues wet trend
Rainfall totals of 2-3 inches in Central Texas today (2/18/12) extends the trend of above-normal rainfall to 4 months. Onion Creek and other contributing creeks flowed for brief periods today and provided some additional modest recharge--adding to the recent trend. The District's Board members will deliberate the drought stage declaration next week at its bi-monthly Board Meeting. We are currently in Critical Stage III Drought. As of this evening Barton Springs has risen to near 70 cfs and well above its drought threshold. However, without more rain that flow will drop relatively quickly--but how fast is the unknown. The second drought trigger, the Lovelady water level, is currently within its Alarm Stage drought threshold. Both drought triggers need to be out of a particular drought stage for the Board to remove or lessen a drought status. While the Board could change the drought status from Critical Stage III to Alarm Stage II, they may wait to see how the aquifer responds to avoid jumping out of Critical to Alarm, only to potentially go back in to Critical in the near future. Later in the week we should have a better understanding of the effects of this additional recharge to the aquifer and the Board can make a more informed decision.
Below is an image courtesy of the LCRA Hydromet system showing rainfall over the past 48 hours (captured 2.18.12 10:00pm). As of 10 pm all contributing creeks are flowing, but receding, with peak flows having generally occurred in the early afternoon.
Below is an image courtesy of the LCRA Hydromet system showing rainfall over the past 48 hours (captured 2.18.12 10:00pm). As of 10 pm all contributing creeks are flowing, but receding, with peak flows having generally occurred in the early afternoon.
Thursday, February 9, 2012
February Aquifer Update
Drought status: Critical
Barton Springs: 50 cfs (temporarily near long-term average)
Lovelady: 190.3 ft (above Critical, within Alarm Stage)
Despite the past 3 months of above-average rainfall, which did produce some recharge, we remain firmly within groundwater drought conditions. The rise in flow at Barton Springs will most certainly be fleeting, unless we get more rainfall. However, conditions are wet and the recharge that has occurred recently may allow for the Board to "upgrade" our drought status to Alarm. That will be discussed at the February 23rd Board Meeting. A little more time is needed to evaluate the recharge that has occurred and to see if the flow and levels will remain above Critical for more than just a couple weeks. We don't want to jump in and out of different drought declarations.
The short-term forecast (14 days) is for a wetter than normal period. That is good considering how wet things are and could result in even more runoff and recharge. And although the long-term predictions (3 month) are for drier-than-normal conditions--the previous long-term predictions have been wrong. The reason is this La Nina has been unusually wet and very different from normal La Nina--let's hope that continues. The Climate Prediction Center just issued a statement that La Nina is expected to transition to ENSO Neutral conditions in Marh-May. Thus, a return to more normal climatic conditions. Significant improvement in the drought could occur if we receive rainfall during during the Spring.
Barton Springs: 50 cfs (temporarily near long-term average)
Lovelady: 190.3 ft (above Critical, within Alarm Stage)
Despite the past 3 months of above-average rainfall, which did produce some recharge, we remain firmly within groundwater drought conditions. The rise in flow at Barton Springs will most certainly be fleeting, unless we get more rainfall. However, conditions are wet and the recharge that has occurred recently may allow for the Board to "upgrade" our drought status to Alarm. That will be discussed at the February 23rd Board Meeting. A little more time is needed to evaluate the recharge that has occurred and to see if the flow and levels will remain above Critical for more than just a couple weeks. We don't want to jump in and out of different drought declarations.
The short-term forecast (14 days) is for a wetter than normal period. That is good considering how wet things are and could result in even more runoff and recharge. And although the long-term predictions (3 month) are for drier-than-normal conditions--the previous long-term predictions have been wrong. The reason is this La Nina has been unusually wet and very different from normal La Nina--let's hope that continues. The Climate Prediction Center just issued a statement that La Nina is expected to transition to ENSO Neutral conditions in Marh-May. Thus, a return to more normal climatic conditions. Significant improvement in the drought could occur if we receive rainfall during during the Spring.
Saturday, February 4, 2012
Continuing winter wet trend helps alleviate drought conditions... a little bit
November-January have all seen above average rainfall for Central Texas. The recent rains have resulted in a down-grading of the meteorological drought severity index in central Texas according to the US Drought monitor (click here for a map). Parts of Travis and Hays Counties are now listed as "extreme to severe" rather than "exceptional" drought status.
Although the aquifer remains in Critical Stage drought, the recent rains have provided some modest recharge. The rains last night provided additional runoff and resulting recharge--Onion Creek appears to have some flow in the creek today. It is possible that the aquifer might receive enough recharge to move up one drought stage to Alarm in the next few weeks. However that will only be short-lived if the creeks don't continue to flow. We'll have to wait and see how the aquifer responds from this latest rainfall. However, we should note that we are still in a drought, and with La Nina projected into the Spring, and with summer (and heaving pumping) approaching, we have to continue to be conservative with water and our drought declarations.
Although the aquifer remains in Critical Stage drought, the recent rains have provided some modest recharge. The rains last night provided additional runoff and resulting recharge--Onion Creek appears to have some flow in the creek today. It is possible that the aquifer might receive enough recharge to move up one drought stage to Alarm in the next few weeks. However that will only be short-lived if the creeks don't continue to flow. We'll have to wait and see how the aquifer responds from this latest rainfall. However, we should note that we are still in a drought, and with La Nina projected into the Spring, and with summer (and heaving pumping) approaching, we have to continue to be conservative with water and our drought declarations.
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
January 25, 2012 Update
Drought Status: Critical
Barton Springs: 30+ cfs estimated*
Lovelady: 193.3 ft
Rainfall on Wednesday morning varied from less than 2, to more than 6 inches in the Onion creek watershed. The heaviest rainfall fell on, and downstream of, the Edwards Recharge Zone in the Barton Springs area. This is reflected in flow of less than 10 cfs at the Onion Creek at Driftwood station on the upstream side of the recharge zone, and the Twin Creeks gage downstream of the recharge zone that reached 700 cfs! In other words, we did get recharge, but it will be temporary and not sustained since the creeks won't continue to flow. However, the ground is saturated enough such that a few inches in the contributing zone could really generate some sustained flow and recharge. Thus, the conditions are primed to get us out of drought--if we get more rain.
*Data from Barton Springs is estimated, but is well above 20 cfs and rising. In a few days there will be some better estimates. Lovelady has leveled off, but these rains will raise the water level in the next few days.
Here is a snapshot of rainfall totals over the past 48 hrs since 1/25/12 4pm (courtesy of the LCRA Hydromet).
There was some significant recharge occurring in the upland (and even in creeks) albeit temporary. Below is a picture of a small tributary of Slaughter Creek with a cave name Brodie Cave, capturing (recharging) all of the streamflow.
Barton Springs: 30+ cfs estimated*
Lovelady: 193.3 ft
Rainfall on Wednesday morning varied from less than 2, to more than 6 inches in the Onion creek watershed. The heaviest rainfall fell on, and downstream of, the Edwards Recharge Zone in the Barton Springs area. This is reflected in flow of less than 10 cfs at the Onion Creek at Driftwood station on the upstream side of the recharge zone, and the Twin Creeks gage downstream of the recharge zone that reached 700 cfs! In other words, we did get recharge, but it will be temporary and not sustained since the creeks won't continue to flow. However, the ground is saturated enough such that a few inches in the contributing zone could really generate some sustained flow and recharge. Thus, the conditions are primed to get us out of drought--if we get more rain.
*Data from Barton Springs is estimated, but is well above 20 cfs and rising. In a few days there will be some better estimates. Lovelady has leveled off, but these rains will raise the water level in the next few days.
Here is a snapshot of rainfall totals over the past 48 hrs since 1/25/12 4pm (courtesy of the LCRA Hydromet).
There was some significant recharge occurring in the upland (and even in creeks) albeit temporary. Below is a picture of a small tributary of Slaughter Creek with a cave name Brodie Cave, capturing (recharging) all of the streamflow.
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
January 2012 Aquifer Update
Drought Stage: Critical Stage III
Barton Springs Flow: 22.2 10-day average
Lovelady: 193.3 ft
Despite the above-average rainfall in November and December for central Texas, we remain firmly in Critical Drought conditions. The rains provided some recharge to the aquifer, but the rise and benefit will only be temporary unless substantial rainfall occurs over the next 6 months. Unfortunately La Nina conditions exist, which generally mean drier-than-normal conditions.
Barton Springs Flow: 22.2 10-day average
Lovelady: 193.3 ft
Despite the above-average rainfall in November and December for central Texas, we remain firmly in Critical Drought conditions. The rains provided some recharge to the aquifer, but the rise and benefit will only be temporary unless substantial rainfall occurs over the next 6 months. Unfortunately La Nina conditions exist, which generally mean drier-than-normal conditions.
Thursday, January 5, 2012
Drought story and photos
Thursday, December 15, 2011
December Aquifer Update
Drought Status: Critical Stage III
Barton Springs: 18 cfs (19.5 cfs 10-day average)
Lovelady: 194.0 ft
The recent rainfall totals for November were near average, and above-average for December. That has brought about some relief to the dryness, but very nominal recharge and relief to the aquifer. Barton Springs discharge has temporarily spiked in response to the rainfall, but minimal response in the Lovelady well indicates very little addition to storage.
A great summary of the recent rains can be found on Bob Rose's (LCRA) blog. Click here.
The District's December newsletter highlights the current drought.
The Office of the Texas State Climatologist (OTSC) has a good statewide summary of the 2011 drought--click here.
Barton Springs: 18 cfs (19.5 cfs 10-day average)
Lovelady: 194.0 ft
The recent rainfall totals for November were near average, and above-average for December. That has brought about some relief to the dryness, but very nominal recharge and relief to the aquifer. Barton Springs discharge has temporarily spiked in response to the rainfall, but minimal response in the Lovelady well indicates very little addition to storage.
A great summary of the recent rains can be found on Bob Rose's (LCRA) blog. Click here.
The District's December newsletter highlights the current drought.
The Office of the Texas State Climatologist (OTSC) has a good statewide summary of the 2011 drought--click here.
Monday, December 5, 2011
November-December Rains Help, but....
Recent rainfall totals of up to 5 inches throughout central Texas since mid-November have been a welcome addition to record-breaking dry year. In fact, the rainfall for November and December total just above average for those two months. Consecutive above-average rainfall months haven't occurred since June and July of 2010 with passing of Hurricane Alex and other tropical storms.
Although these rains have set the conditions for runoff that could help alleviate the groundwater drought, the recent rains have not produced runoff and are far from ending our drought. The Blanco River (at Wimberley) and some of the more urbanized creeks in the Austin area, such as Williamson and Slaughter, had temporary rises in stage and flow due to the flow. However, Onion Creek has not had any substantial flows from these rainfalls. Barton Springs has also had a temporary rise due to the localized (urban-runoff) effects, but will quickly decline to pre-rainfall levels in the next few days.
Many months of above-average rainfall, or sufficiently large rainfall events (>10 inches) under the right conditions, are needed to help alleviate the drought conditions.
Although these rains have set the conditions for runoff that could help alleviate the groundwater drought, the recent rains have not produced runoff and are far from ending our drought. The Blanco River (at Wimberley) and some of the more urbanized creeks in the Austin area, such as Williamson and Slaughter, had temporary rises in stage and flow due to the flow. However, Onion Creek has not had any substantial flows from these rainfalls. Barton Springs has also had a temporary rise due to the localized (urban-runoff) effects, but will quickly decline to pre-rainfall levels in the next few days.
Many months of above-average rainfall, or sufficiently large rainfall events (>10 inches) under the right conditions, are needed to help alleviate the drought conditions.
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