Fall Has Arrived! La Niña too?

Lovelady well height: 545.51 ft-msl (107.91 ft- Depth to Water)

Barton Springs: approxamately 113 cfs 10-day average

Fall 2016 has arrived and hopefully it will soon bring with it some much-desired cooler temperatures. However, one thing it may not be bringing is a La Nina. What will that mean for the coming fall and winter?

            We’re all well-familiar with El Niño after an extremely strong occurrence of the phenomenon brought unusually high rainfall totals throughout the spring and summer of this year (48.3 inches thus far in 2106).El Niño occurs when there are unusually high sea surface temperatures in the Pacific. Conversely, La Niña happens when there are unusually low sea surface temperatures. In Central Texas, El Niño brings unusually high rainfall in spring and summer, while La Niña brings rainfall in the fall and winter. For more information on both La Niña and El Niño, take a look at this page created by the Pacific Marine Environmental Library, part of NOAA.

Although surface water temperatures in the Pacific have been cooling since the peaks of El Niño, they are not decreasing at the rate climatologists had previously predicted. According to Reuters, U.S. government forecasters have decreased their prediction of a La Niña occurring from a probability of 76 percent (put forth in May) to just 36 percent. This month, NOAA officially dropped its “La Niña Watch,” in place since April.

All indicators are pointing to a no-Niña winter. That likely means it will also be a dry one. Regardless, fall greetings to all from BSEACD.