La Nina Climate Impacts and Outlook for Texas in 2018

In addition to November’s blog post on  weak La Nina conditions developing in the tropical Pacific, below are some climate forecasts from the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) team on La Nina’s potential impacts on Central and South Texas. As of early-November, the tropical Pacific and atmosphere were exhibiting weak La Nina conditions. Forecasts favor above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation through approximately February-April 2018.

Drought

Abnormally dry conditions developed in areas of Central and western Texas between August and October while moderate drought conditions remained in southern Texas. Drought conditions in these areas are predicted to persist through February, according to the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook.

Temperature

The three-month NOAA temperature outlook (December-February)
favors chances for above-average temperatures for all of Texas through February.

Precipitation

The NOAA three-month precipitation outlook predicts chances for below-average
precipitation for all Texas, except for the northernmost point of the
state (December-February). La Niña conditions tend to lead to below-average
precipitation in the Southwest U.S. and northern Mexico.

Fire

According to the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), fire risk is normal for
New Mexico and Texas through December (Figure 9).
However, La Niña conditions, projected to continue through the winter, are
predicted to bring dry and warm conditions to the Southern Plains, including
Central Texas, by January, making grasses and brush
more receptive to fire.

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