Fall Rain Fall!

Alarm Stage II Drought
Lovelady well height: 472 ft-msl
Barton Springs: approximately 43 cfs 10-day average

The wet weather pattern continues around Austin!
Today (9/14) marks our 12th day in a row of rain in the region, and it looks like we have five or so more to go. According to Spectrum News, there’s a pretty good chance for rain from the system developing in the Gulf of Mexico. NOAA currently predicts a 60% chance it’ll become a Tropical Depression in the next 48 hours and it might even grow to Tropical Storm Joyce.

Given how saturated the ground has become, it won’t take much rain to cause flash flooding in the area. So be aware, Turn Around, Don't Drown.

Spectrum News’ computer models points to a landfall somewhere along the Lower or Middle Texas Coast by Friday evening, with rain spreading all the way up across Central Texas in Saturday. That said, there’s still a lot of uncertainty with this forecast.

So what do es this mean for our current drought conditions?
The BSEACD drought outlook valid from August 30, 2018, to September 13, 2018 remains in  “ALARM STAGE II Drought”. Even with the recent rains in the Hill Country and Austin averaging 7”(LCRA) raising Barton Springs flow, aquifer levels remain below Stage II trigger levels. Much needed recharge certainly occurred and area creeks saw large amounts of flow, but more is needed to exit Stage II drought.

Barton Springs flow has risen to 43 cfs (10 day avg) up from 27 cfs while Lovelady monitor well saw a short period of leveling water levels, but continues on a downward trend. Levels are currently at 472 ft-msl (Stage II trigger level = below 478 ft-msl).

Onion creek saw a peak flow of 2,700 cfs and a peak stage of 9.7 ft (bank full stage = 8 ft) (LCRA, Buda). Antioch cave vault received little of this recharge because suspended solids in storm waters were too high to open Antioch valves.