2019 Spring Aquifer Conditions Outlook

No Drought
Lovelady well height: 529 ft-msl (124 ft- Depth to Water)
Barton Springs: approximately: 107 cfs 10-day average

Those of us living in the Edwards Aquifer region know the meaning of drought… and the relief that comes from a season (or more) without it.  Roughly 60,000 people rely on the Edwards for their drinking water.  All experience the ups and downs of this critical resource, and the impacts of those shifts.

The District utilizes flow at Barton Springs in combination with water levels in the Lovelady monitor well to indicate overall storage and drought status of the aquifer. The graph below shows groundwater level elevation from 2009 to present. It illustrates that the past decade has been characterized by dramatic peaks and critical lows. Fortunately, the Barton Springs segment of the Edwards aquifer has been out of drought conditions for 63% of that time. Still, that 63% has been punctuated by periods of Stage 2 Alarm drought (19% of the last ten years) and Critical drought (18%).

  

We received ample recharge at the close of 2018, including 13” of rain from September to October. The result has bolstered local aquifers and reservoirs that were already at average-or-above levels. Even so, a low rainfall average this past winter has produced little additional flow in area creeks. When the creeks stop flowing, water levels inevitably begin to decline. Our graph also indicates just how quickly and significantly our water levels can drop in periods of reduced recharge. For example, it took only a year for January 2011’s surplus to drop to Critical drought by January 2012.

What we might expect moving forward:

• May 2019 could fulfill its role as the average wettest month in Austin, bringing a significant influx of recharge.
• A period of a weak El Niño (forecasted by the Climate Prediction Center) could contribute to above-average rainfall and below-average temperatures through spring and into summer.

To stay up to date with current drought status, visit the Austin/San Antonio Drought Status website.

With a little over 2” of rain in the first half of April, favorable current conditions and a weak El Niño on the horizon, our outlook for avoiding drought in Spring 2019 is hopeful. With continued efforts by our entire community to conserve water, and with help from the climate, we hope for a drought-free season.