Aquifer Conditions Improving

Stage III Critical Drought
Lovelady monitor well: 465.32 ft-msl
Barton Springs: approx. 65 cfs 10-day average

Water levels in the aquifer continue to climb after the storm on October 12-13 that brought 6.8 inches to the District rain gauge and over 12 inches in areas nearby. Lovelady monitor well water level has come up over 6 feet since the beginning of October. It is unclear whether the storms were enough to get us completely out of drought or for how long we water level will continue to rise, but levels have improved beyond the threshold between Stage II Alarm and Stage III Critical drought.
Flow at Barton Springs has also dramatically increased; District staff measured flow this morning to be about 68 cfs.
This evening the District's board of directors will convene and may vote to downgrade the drought severity to Stage II Drought.

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Floods put us on the Right Track but not out of Drought yet

Stage III Critical Drought

Heavy rains (and floods) over the October 12 through 13 weekend have brought about much needed flow in the creeks that cross the recharge zone of the Barton Springs segment of the Edwards Aquifer.  Water levels in the aquifer started to rise slowly in mid-September following two rain events that brought a total of 4.4 inches to the District rain gage.  September ended with a total of 6.8 inches of rain at the District.  The October 12-13 rain event brought over 12 inches of rain to an area near Loop 360 and Barton Creek, 8 inches in Shady Hollow, with lesser amounts over the remainder of the recharge and contributing zones.  Aquifer levels in the Lovelady monitor well rose about a foot between September 18 and October 12.  Following the October 12-13 rain event, the water level in the well rose about 1.2 ft over a 4-day period.  A further rise of about 2.3 ft will move us into Stage II Alarm Drought from our current Stage III Critical Drought.  We can’t say that the end of the drought is in sight, but we are at least on the right track, for now.

Below see a video of Slaughter Creek on the morning of Sunday October 13.

Error in Reported USGS Discharge at Barton Springs

The reported Barton Springs flow values (here) from the USGS website are not presently accurate due to the Government Shutdown. Small adjustments to the pool level due to pool management affect the nearby USGS gage used to estimate springflow. The USGS makes adjustments to the gage-springflow relationship to compensate for changes in the pool level. However, with staff on furlough, those adjustments are not occurring and so the gage is erroneously reporting some of the lowest values ever recorded (9.9 today, the lowest during 1956 was 9.6 cfs). We know that is not true. Manual measurement this week was about 24 cfs.

October Aquifer Update

Drought Status: Stage III Critical
Barton Springs: 19 cfs (10-day average)*
Lovelady: 458.9

Recent rains have helped to bring springflow and water levels upward a little bit (see chart below). However, without sustained recharge from flowing creeks, we will soon be back into a declining trend. Onion Creek near Driftwood, for example is only flowing about 2 cfs--not enough to provide recharge to the aquifer.

The U.S. Seasonal Outlook through December is for the drought to persist. Tropical or Hurricane systems will likely be the best potential for rainfall, although those bring their own problems.

source: http://waterdata.usgs.gov/tx/nwis/uv/?site_no=301237097464801&PARAmeter_cd=72019

Rains Slow Descent into Deeper Drought

Stage III Critical Drought

Barton Springs: 21 cfs (10-day average)

Lovelady Monitor Well: 458.4 ft-msl

September was a rainy month. As of September 26, the total rainfall for the month has been 4.35 inches, compared to the 3.5 inches historical average. The rains were much needed after the exceptionally dry conditions experienced in August. Barton Springs experienced a spike in discharge that brought flow from approximately 17 cfs at the beginning of September to just over 30 cfs at peak discharge earlier this week. Lovelady also showed a reversal in the decreasing hydrograph that has been the norm since the declaration of drought in November 2012. With the rain soaking soils and replenishing parched plants, conditions are primed for any precipitation in the coming weeks to generate runoff and streamflow, where most of the recharge to the aquifer occurs. Hopefully rainy conditions will persist throughout the fall and winter and substantial recharge can occur long-term. However, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center predicts that drought conditions will persist or intensify in central Texas for the foreseeable future. 

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Precipitation in September not Enough to Change Drought Trends

Stage III Critical Drought

Barton Springs:  15.4 cfs 10-day average based on correlation with Lovelady

Lovelady monitor well: 458.3 ft-msl

Rainfall in September has been good. As of September 12th, 2.45 inches of rain have been measured at the District rain gauge; the historic monthly average is 3.5 inches. Despite the amount of precipitation over the last couple of weeks, recharge to the aquifer has been minimal, with most of the rain water going to replenishing parched soils and vegetation. As a result, water levels in the aquifer continue to decline, creeping closer to Stage IV Exceptional drought. Unless recharge conditions substantially improve we project approaching the Stage IV threshold around the end of the year. 

Last month the USGS began posting real time data from our Lovelady monitor well. That data can be viewed at the following link:

http://waterdata.usgs.gov/tx/nwis/uv/?site_no=301237097464801&PARAmeter_cd=72019

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In the Thick of Stage III Drought

Stage III Critical Drought
Barton Springs: 15.9 cfs (estimated 10-day average)
Lovelady Monitor Well: 458.8 ft-msl

Despite a wetter than average July, dry conditions persist throughout central Texas putting the total rainfall deficit since the declaration of drought in November 2012 at about 10 inches below average according to the District rain gauge. The US Drought Monitor rates central Texas as experiencing a "severe to extreme drought" as of August 20, 2013. Consequently, aquifer levels continue in steady decline. If recharge conditions remain the same, crossing into Stage IV Exceptional drought may occur towards the end of this year.

Exceptional Drought Stage IV predictions

Preliminary projections based on the rate water levels dropped during the 2009 drought indicate that if dry conditions persist, the Stage IV Exceptional drought threshold may be reached by December of this year. See below.

Aquifer Update

Critical Stage III Drought
Barton Springs: 16 cfs 10-day average
Lovelady: 459.1 ft-msl

During these low-flow conditions the discharge values at Barton Springs becomes erratic, making absolute determinations of discharge difficult. Using historic drought data the District has created a correlation between the water levels in the Lovelady well and Barton Springs. Based on this correlation the 10-day average is about 16 cfs, despite the USGS reporting about 18 cfs presently.

Note that the Lovelady data will soon be available online in real-time. The District has contracted the USGS to host the Lovelady site in its system.

10-day Average at Barton Springs below Stage III Threshold

Stage III Critical Drought
Barton Springs: 18.2 cfs (10-day average)
Lovelady monitor well: 459.9 ft-msl

District staff measured flow of 17.5 cfs at Barton Springs today, putting the 10-day average below the Stage III Critical drought threshold for the first time since Stage III drought was declared on April 17, 2013. This stage of drought declaration was based on the water level in the Lovelady monitor well having dropped below its Stage III threshold. Lovelady water level does not respond to small rain events as dramatically as the discharge at Barton Springs does. June was a very dry month bringing the total rainfall deficit since Novemeber to 9 inches below average.