However, based on the rate of decline of the water level in the Lovelady monitor well (the district's other drought trigger) it appears that the Stage III Critical Drought threshold of 462.7 ft-msl will be passed on approximately March 10, 2013. Drought stage can be declared by the board if thresholds at either of the drought trigger sites have been passed. Stage III Critical Drought corresponds with a 10-day flow average at Barton Springs between 20 and 14 cfs.
Hydrograph of Lovelady monitor well. (click to enlarge)