Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Drought Conditions Continue

Drought Status: Alarm Stage II
Barton Springs: 29 cfs (10-day average)
Lovelady: 466.6 ft-msl

Drought conditions continue in early 2013 and, unfortunately, the forecast is for hotter and drier conditions than normal. If these dry conditions continue, data from Barton Springs indicates we could enter into Stage III Critical Drought as early as mid- to late-February. Data from our other drought trigger, the Lovelady Well, suggests we'll enter into Stage III by early March. It only takes one of our triggers to cross its respective drought threshold for the Board to make a drought declaration.

Data for Barton Springs may be a little bit elevated above the actual discharge values as suggested by some recent manual measurements and the level in the Lovelady well. We will continue to collect more information and possibly revise our estimates. Below are charts estimating the entry into Stage III by using recession data from the 2011 drought.

Drought Prediction Chart

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