Critical Stage III Drought likely by early March

Drought Status: Alarm Stage II
Barton Springs: 21.8 cfs (10-day average)
Lovelady well: 464.5 ft-msl

Today district staff measured discharge to be 20.13 cfs at Barton Springs. Based on the rating curve for Barton Springs, it is likely that the 10-day flow average will drop below the 20 cfs threshold for declaring a Stage III Critical  drought before the end of February or in the first few days of March. The subsequent drought declaration could potentially be made made by the district's board at their meeting on March 7.

Drought Conditions Continue

Drought Status: Alarm Stage II
Barton Springs: 29 cfs (10-day average)
Lovelady: 466.6 ft-msl

Drought conditions continue in early 2013 and, unfortunately, the forecast is for hotter and drier conditions than normal. If these dry conditions continue, data from Barton Springs indicates we could enter into Stage III Critical Drought as early as mid- to late-February. Data from our other drought trigger, the Lovelady Well, suggests we'll enter into Stage III by early March. It only takes one of our triggers to cross its respective drought threshold for the Board to make a drought declaration.

Data for Barton Springs may be a little bit elevated above the actual discharge values as suggested by some recent manual measurements and the level in the Lovelady well. We will continue to collect more information and possibly revise our estimates. Below are charts estimating the entry into Stage III by using recession data from the 2011 drought.

Drought Prediction Chart

Need More Rain to Improve Drought Status

Drought Status: Stage II Alarm
Barton Springs: 28.6 cfs (10 average)

Lovelady well: 468 ft-msl

The precipitation received this week is a welcome respite from the overall dry conditions that have prevailed in the area this winter. The District's rain gauge reads about 2.5 inches received over the past 48 hours (Jan. 8 and 9). However, the rains have not been substantial enough to generate any considerable amount of runoff in the creeks over the contributing or recharge zones of the Edwards Aquifer. Most of the water went to replenishing soil moisture.  Despite not generating runoff, the recent rains have primed soil moisture conditions for generating recharge to the aquifer in the event of more precipitation in the next few weeks.

According to the National Weather Service the outlook for more precipitation in central Texas in January and February is not promising, having predicted drought conditions to "persist or intensify". If dry conditions persist, it is likely that the aquifer will enter Critical Stage III drought in March. 

2012 warmest and second most extreme year on record for contiguous U.S.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/

Above is a link to the 2012 State of the Climate by the National Climate Data Center.

2012 Year in Review

Barton Springs: 29 cfs

Lovelady: 468.2 ft-msl

Over the past year the aquifer has experienced multiple drought stages. The aquifer started 2012 in Critical Stage III drought, brought about by the most severe single-year drought in Texas history. Above average rainfall in the winter and early spring months of 2011-2012 generated sufficient soil moisture, runoff, and sustained creek flow to recharge the aquifer enough for the District’s board to downgrade the Critical Stage III drought to Alarm Stage II in February and “No Drought” conditions in March. Above average rainfall conditions persisted until about mid-April allowing Barton Springs to reach a peak discharge above 100 cfs. After the above-average wet conditions at the start of the year, precipitation in May was not substantial enough to maintain recharge conditions at former rates. Flow in creeks began to subside, diminishing the amount of recharge entering the aquifer. The summer months in 2012 were very dry causing creeks to eventually stop flowing over the recharge zone and aquifer levels to continue to decrease. By late August, flow in Barton Springs had reached 69.3 cfs. Precipitation in September was scarce and a steady decrease of aquifer levels continued. Meager rainfall in October was not sufficient enough to overcome the soil moisture deficit incurred during the summer and therefore unable to generate runoff or creek flow to recharge the aquifer. Dry conditions persisted in November; the Board declared Alarm Stage II Drought on November 15 after both official drought indicators at Barton Springs and Lovelady monitor well passed their drought thresholds of 38 cfs and 478.4 ft-msl respectively. That alarm stage remains in effect as of January 4, 2013. The total rainfall recorded at the district for 2012 of about 35 inches was above the yearly average for the area (33.38 inches). Despite the above-average rainfall, it is likely the exceptional recharge deficit incurred during the 2011 drought has prevented the aquifer from maintaining non-drought levels.

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook by the National Weather Service indicates that drought conditions are expected to “persist or intensify” for central Texas through January and February of 2013. According to previous recession curves for Lovelady monitor well, if precipitation conditions remain scarce the drought threshold for a Critical Stage III drought will likely be passed in early March 2013. 

Press Release: Alarm Stage II Drought Declared

Aquifer District Declares Stage II Alarm Drought

At its November 15 Board meeting, the Board of Directors of the Barton Springs/Edwards Aquifer Conservation District declared ‘Stage II Alarm Drought’ for the District, effective immediately.  The drought declaration affects authorized water use by some 60,000 groundwater users in northern Hays, southern Travis, and western Caldwell counties.  

The Lovelady Monitor Well, in the Edwards Aquifer and located in South Austin, dipped below its Alarm threshold of 478.4 feet above mean sea level on November 7th.  The 10-day average discharge at Barton Springs, the District’s other official drought indicator, also dipped below its Alarm threshold of a 10-day average of 38 cubic feet per second, based on BSEACD manual measurements a few days later.  For the Board to officially declare drought, only one drought indicator has to cross below its trigger threshold.  In this instance, both the water level in the Lovelady Monitor Well and springflow at Barton Springs were below their respective triggers prompting the drought declaration.

Declaration of Stage II Alarm Drought requires all of the District’s permittees to implement measures specified in their User Drought Contingency Plans to meet monthly pumpage reduction requirements.  All permittees must achieve at least a 20% reduction in monthly pumpage.  Permittees with certain conditional permits may have to reduce use even further.  End-user customers served by water utilities on groundwater wells are required to comply with their utility’s water use restrictions for this drought stage.  Generally, restricting outdoor water use, including limiting landscape irrigation, pool filling & refilling, and non-essential water use such as water fountains, is sufficient to reach monthly pumpage targets for Stage II Alarm Drought.

Since January 1, the Aquifer District has recorded approximately 35 inches of rainfall, which already exceeds the yearly average for the area (33.38 inches). However despite above average rainfall this year, it has not been enough to generate runoff to recharge the aquifer and to sustain non-drought water levels.  This is probably due in part to the exceptional rainfall deficit and low water levels in the aquifer in 2011. Many area surface water and groundwater resources face similar drought conditions.  Water conservation now will help slow water level declines and protect water availability for groundwater users.

BSEACD is a groundwater conservation district charged by the Texas Legislature to preserve, conserve, and protect the aquifers and groundwater resources within its jurisdiction, which includes parts of three Central Texas counties.  It is governed by a Board of five elected directors and staffed with hydrogeologists, groundwater regulatory compliance specialists, environmental educators, geospatial systems specialists, and administrative support personnel.

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For more info including Drought Frequently Asked Questions visit:

http://www.bseacd.org/publications/spotlights/aquifer-district-declares-stage-ii-alarm-drought/

Aquifer Update

Barton Springs: 36 cfs (10-day average)
Lovelady: 476.5 ft-msl

Both Barton Springs discharge and the elevation of the water level in the Lovelady well are below their respective Alarm Stage II drought triggers. The Board of Directors will meet this Thursday (11/15/12) at 6pm and will discuss the District's drought status. Likely a drought declaration will be made at this meeting.

Unfortunately, the forecast for the winter is not good and the dry conditions are expected to persist. If the dry conditions persist through the Spring, and based on the 2009 drought, we could expect to approach Critical Stage III in about 5-6 months from now (April-May 2013).

Aquifer on the verge of drought

Drought Status: No Drought
Barton Springs: 38* cfs (10-day average)
Lovelady: 478.7 ft-msl (0.3 ft above its trigger)

The lack of rain has the drought indicators on the verge of crossing their respective drought triggers. It only takes one of the indicators to cross its threshold for the Board to make a declaration, however, it appears that both Barton Springs and the Lovelady well indicators will be beneath their respective triggers within a matter of a few days.

The Board of Directors will meet in mid-November and will discuss the drought and could make an official drought declaration. Alarm Stage (II) drought will trigger a 20% monthly reduction from normal water use.  The aquifer has been in a relatively good state compared to other water resources--we've been out of drought about 8 months, since March of this year. Although groundwater resources, and especially the Edwards, can lag behind surface water droughts as this one has, we the dryness has caught up to the Edwards too. When the declaration comes it will be lagging behind other agencies and water resources that are currently in one state of drought declaration or another. See previous blog for details on that.

Unfortunately, the El Nino system never developed and so we are in a neutral ENSO state and the forecast for rain is not promising according to the US Season Outlook.


*springflow is estimated due to some influence of construction or activities at Barton Springs Pool. Those estimates are based on the recession (rate of decline) and a correlation with Lovelady.

Aquifer Update

Drought Status: Non-Drought Conditions
Barton Springs: ~40 cfs (41.7 10-day average)
Lovelady: 481.4 ft-msl (172.0 ft depth to water)

Barton Springs discharge that is reported on the USGS website has been corrected to reflect manual verification measurements. The website was reporting values about 4 cfs too low.  District staff also measured springflow and verified the higher values. As such, we've avoided entry into drought for at least a couple of weeks--and hopefully we'll get some rainfall in the meantime.

Unfortunately, the El Nino conditions are very weak, if present at all, so future rainfall projections due to ENSO are not a source of optimism at this time.

Although the District is currently no under drought restrictions or declarations, here's what is happening around us:

Edwards Aquifer Authority:

o   Under Stage 2 restrictions (30% curtailment)  based on 10-day average values for J-17 (current reading:  648msl;  Stage II threshold 650msl, Stage III threshold 640msl). 

o   News Release (9/18/2012):  San Antonio Pool Expiration of Stage III and Return to Stage II

o   EAA Critical Stage Info (Triggers, Stages and Reductions)

City of Austin: 

o   Stage II restrictions are in effect (outdoor watering limited to 1 specified day per week, before 10am or after 7pm)

o   Stage II watering restrictions were implemented on Sept. 4, 2012.

o   Follows LCRA drought triggers (see next section).

Lower Colorado River Authority:

o   Water storage is at less than 900,000 acre feet and lakes are currently (10/22/2012) at 44% full (879,288 acre feet).  Check real time Lake Volumes.

o   When lakes reach 900,000 million acre feet, firm water customers required to reduce water use by 10-20%, and they start a curtailment of interruptible supply and environmental flows for critical needs continues.

o   2010 Water Management Plan Drought Triggers

Guadalupe-Blanco River Authority:

o   Currently in Stage 1 Mild Water Shortage Conditions.

o   Comal Springs at 211 cfs and Canyon Reservoir at 901.52 msl (10/22/2012).

o   Stage 1 Mild Water Shortage Conditions triggered when the water level drops below 895 feet in Canyon Reservoir (or less than 274,800 ac/ft of storage) and/or Comal Springs is at or below 250 cfs but greater than 200 cfs.  See 2011 Drought Contingency Plan for more info. 

Hays-Trinity Groundwater Conservation District:

o   The Board of Directors declared Alarm Stage Drought (20% reduction) on 9/1/2012.

o   Discharge readings for the Pedernales (27 cfs) have been below Alarm thresholds (31.6 cfs) for 3 days. (10/22/2012). 

o   Alarm Stage Drought triggers for are 30-day averages of 31.6 cfs for the Pedernales and/or 28.5 for the Blanco.

Alarm Stage Drought Approaching

Drought Declaration Status: No Drought
Barton Springs discharge: 39 cfs (40.8 cfs 10-day average)
Lovelady Well:  168.8 ft depth to water (484.6 ft elevation)*

Without significant rainfall and recharge Barton Springs discharge could cross its Alarm Stage drought threshold in mid to late October. The Lovelady well will likely cross its threshold about 2-3 weeks later in early November. It only takes one indicator to cross its threshold for the Board to make a drought declaration.

Despite the better-than-average rainfall for parts of central Texas, the rainfall has not come in sufficient intensity or locations to keep us from entering back into drought conditions.  Streams and rivers are not flowing across the recharge zone and streams such as Onion Creek and the Blanco River are flowing below normal. Surface waters reservoirs such as Lake Travis reflect this fact and are currently at about 42% capacity.

The one glimmer of hope for relief from dry conditions the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook indicating this part of central Texas as improving into December. This is likely based upon El Nino conditions projected to strengthen in the next few months.

*The Board is on the verge of approving rules that would convert the drought thresholds for the Lovelady well from depth to water (in feet) to an elevation (feet above mean sea level). This is merely a conversion and does not influence the time or frequency of drought declarations from the established methodology.The image below is a summary of those conversions.